Forecasting Patent Revenue with Regression Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulations

About the Course: Forecasting the revenue streams associated with patents calls for statistical analysis. During this session regression analysis and Monte Carlo simulations are explained in great detail. Listeners are walked through over 20 Excel worksheets and are privy to the application of dozens of calculations and formulas. Case studies of emerging technology and mature technology companies are presented. The following are among the issues discussed: Time series regression analysis Hypothesis testing with regression analysis Excel forecasting tools–e.g. LINEST and FORECAST Improving accuracy of regression analysis using residuals, ordinary least squares and Excel’s Solver Projecting royalty revenue using Linear, Polynomial, Logarithmic and Exponential trendlines Harnessing statistical tools such as R2, F stat, p-value to enhance forecasting accuracy Correcting for homoscedasticity and autocorrelation The intersection of the discounted cash flow method and Monte Carlo analysis The Fisher-Pry method of early stage forecasting of patent revenues Monte Carlo analysis with normal, lognormal, triangle and Latin Hypercube distributions Creation of confidence intervals Determination of incidence of various scenarios Course Leader: Scott M. DeMarco, Manager, BST Valuation and Litigation Advisors, LLC Scott M. DeMarco is a Manager at BST Valuation and Litigation Advisors, LLC. He holds the Certified Business Appraiser (CBA) and Certified Patent Valuation Analyst (CPVA) accreditations. He has been involved in the valuation of privately held business enterprises, professional and medical practices, intellectual property, advanced academic degrees, and economic damage analysis. Mr. DeMarco gained finance and intellectual property licensing experience helping grow and sell two software companies, AutoQuant Imaging, Inc. and Agora Games, Inc. He helped grow AutoQuant Imaging, Inc., and assisted in the sale of the majority of the company’s intangible assets to a major player in the life science imaging research industry. As Chief Financial Officer at Agora Games, Inc., Mr. DeMarco helped profitably grow and sell the company to Major League Gaming (MLG). He received his bachelor’s of science in finance from the Robert H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland, and a Master’s in Business Administration with a specialization in Information Technology from the State University of New York at Albany.
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